Nepal experienced its highest-ever tourist arrivals in 2019, with 1.197 million foreign visitors, according to government data. However, the COVID-19 pandemic dealt a severe blow to the tourism industry, leading to an unprecedented decline in arrivals and plunging the sector into crisis.
The impact was felt as early as 2020, with fears of infection, lockdowns, and travel restrictions significantly curtailing global and domestic tourism. That year, foreign arrivals in Nepal dropped to just 230,085—a dramatic fall compared to 2019. While January and February 2020 saw relatively stable numbers, arrivals plummeted starting in March. During April 2020, at the height of the lockdown, Nepal recorded a mere 14 arrivals—the lowest in its history.
In 2021, the situation remained challenging, with only 150,962 foreign visitors recorded. A modest recovery began late in the year, gaining traction in 2022 when arrivals increased to 614,869. By 2023, numbers surged to 1,014,882, signaling a robust revival in Nepal’s tourism sector.
Globally, data from UN Tourism highlighted similar trends. International tourist arrivals in 2020 were only 28% of 2019 levels. This rose to 31% in 2021, 67% in 2022, 89% in 2023, and 98% by September 2024. Nepal mirrored this trajectory, with its tourism recovery reaching 96.3% of 2019 levels by November 2024, according to Nepal Tourism Board Director Maniraj Lamichhane.
“Using 2019 as the baseline, arrivals had significantly declined but have now recovered to 96.3%,” said Lamichhane. He attributed this improvement to the global rebound in tourism, though challenges remain. “We expected to surpass 2019 levels by 2024, but due to unforeseen events, the target was missed. It may now take until 2025 to set a new record.”
Lamichhane estimated that Nepal would close 2024 with 1.125 million tourist arrivals—approximately 95% of 2019’s figures. He cited factors like air and ground accidents, flooding, airport upgrades, and ongoing global disruptions as reasons for the shortfall. Notably, arrivals have declined monthly since August 2024, with a cumulative drop of around 40,000 visitors over the last four months.
Regional trends also influenced Nepal’s performance. While tourism in the Middle East has grown by 29% compared to 2019, and Europe has exceeded its pre-pandemic levels by 1%, Asia has recovered to just 85%. For Nepal, the slower return of Chinese tourists has been particularly challenging. Chinese visitors accounted for 14% of arrivals in 2019 but dropped to 9% in 2024.
“Despite falling short in Chinese arrivals, Nepal has met broader recovery goals,” Lamichhane said, pointing to challenges like climate change, economic downturns, and rising airfares as additional hurdles.
Industry stakeholders expressed similar concerns. Hari Sharma, president of the Hotel Association Nepal (Gandaki), noted that even peak seasons failed to meet expectations. “While overall numbers appear adequate, destinations like Pokhara have not felt the impact. The lingering effects of the pandemic will likely continue through 2024,” Sharma added.
