Nepal’s economy is projected to reach Rs 6.6 trillion by the end of the current fiscal year (FY), marking an increase of Rs 401 billion, according to preliminary national accounting data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday.
The latest estimates show that the country’s nominal economic size has grown compared to FY 2024/25, when it stood at Rs 6.199 trillion. In the previous fiscal year, the economy was valued at Rs 5.760 trillion.
However, the figures also highlight a widening gap between official economic ambitions and current performance. A government white paper released earlier this week outlined a target of building a US $100 billion economy—equivalent to over Rs 15 trillion—within five to seven years, more than double the present size.
The NSO estimates economic growth at 3.85% at consumer prices for the current fiscal year, down from 4.43% in the previous year. At constant prices, growth is projected at 3.68%, slightly lower than last year’s 3.80%.
Sectoral performance shows uneven trends. The primary sector, which includes agriculture, mining, and natural resources, is expected to grow by just 1.63%, down from 3.01% last year. The tertiary or services sector is projected to grow by 4.21%, also slightly lower than the previous year’s 4.36%.
In contrast, the secondary sector—including manufacturing—is expected to improve, with projected growth of 5.77%, up from 3.40% last fiscal year. The NSO attributed this rise to increased production of items such as cement, vegetable ghee, concrete, soybean oil, iron rods, tobacco, wiring cable, jute, and beer. The sector has also seen higher imports of raw materials, including soybean oil, zinc sheets, iron rod inputs, and coal.
The industrial sector’s share of GDP is expected to remain steady at 13.7%, while the primary and tertiary sectors are projected to contribute 24.5% and 61.8%, respectively.
Meanwhile, GDP per capita has slightly declined to $1,513 in FY 2025/26, down from $1,516 the previous year. NSO Director Dinesh Bhattarai said the decrease is mainly due to the depreciation of the Nepali currency against the US dollar. Gross national income (GNI) per capita is estimated at $1,535, unchanged from last year’s revised figure.
